Risk Management

Making Good Decisions

by Mel Futrell

Many Pilot Getaways destinations call for special safety considerations and training. They may involve mountain flying, over-water approaches, and backcountry airstrips. Such challenging conditions, as well as changing weather, complex airspace, unanticipated mechanical issues, and our own capabilities all play key roles in the decisions we make and, therefore, the safety of our trip.

Almost every aviator knows, with the wisdom of 20/20 hindsight, that John F. Kennedy, Jr. was too inexperienced for his flight conditions, made poor decisions, and inadvertently stacked too many factors against himself. Yet, a seasoned and cautious 5,000-plus-hour pilot on an otherwise routine flight can also get caught in a bad situation.

Can we truly plan for the unknown? The answer is “yes.” We can do a lot to maintain some control over the many variables that affect flight safety and proficiency. The secret lies in having the right knowledge to make good decisions. We pilots have long had many tools at our disposal: DUAT, METARs, TAFs, PIREPs, flight simulators, WINGS and FAASTeam programs, etc. However, we may not always use these resources effectively. People tend to think that more data will automatically result in making good decisions—a potentially dangerous belief. While good decision-making does rely on information developed from good data, it is still not enough. Information helps us decide what to do, but not how to do it. Knowledge helps us determine how to use information, and thereby improve our odds.

We gain knowledge through experience and education. Experience is the most memorable teacher, but also the most time-consuming and costly to obtain. It is also high-risk, as we learn through our mistakes. John F. Kennedy, Jr. was a relatively inexperienced VFR pilot who had never flown over water at night in near-IMC. When he became spatially disoriented, he'd had no prior encounters on which to draw and no time to build a solution from scratch. Unfortunately, this first experience was also his last.

Education supplements experience and allows us to gain knowledge from the mistakes of others. It is efficient, cost-effective, and low-risk. A safe pilot is always learning. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) provides free handbooks and manuals online at www.faa.gov/library/manuals/aviation. Their Risk Management Handbook, an excellent general pilot reference, addresses such factors as pilot stress and health, weather, terrain, and visual illusions, as well as ways to assess and mitigate their risks. Remember, education doesn't just come in the form of classroom instruction, regulations, and manuals; it includes training, informal reading, and even casual conversation. Those lazy afternoons spent hangar flying with your pilot pals really do much more than just pass the time.

Knowledge acquired through education is less memorable than experience and must be constantly reinforced. Recurrent flight training and even simulated flight—including the personal-computer variety—can sharpen our decision-making skills. Aeronautical decision-making (ADM) represents a systematic approach to forming sensible conclusions and choosing the appropriate course of action in response to a given set of circumstances. It is a skill that can be learned. FlightRisk designed a useful resource that can be a vital component of ongoing ADM training, www.flightrisk.com. Their customizable web-based flight planning and risk analysis system identifies hazards and recommends the appropriate risk mitigation procedures. This tool becomes a personal operations manual that takes such flight parameters as aircraft type, weather, regulations, and runway conditions and consolidates the information into a digestible form. FlightRisk also enables pilots to rate hazards and report conditions associated with each phase of flight, learning from one another's experiences, sharing knowledge, and improving the ADM process.

The FAA's NextGen program introduces new technologies like ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, a new surveillance technology for tracking aircraft), and CPDLC (Controller-Pilot DataLink Communications), as well as system changes like RVSM (Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums). This gradual, ongoing transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS), focused on increasing safety and proficiency, will continue over the next few years. These modernizations will trickle down to general aviation, as did GPS, and will ultimately change the way we operate. Many of these changes reallocate decision-making responsibilities from traditional ground personnel, like air-traffic controllers and weather briefers, to the cockpit. We are already beginning to see onboard traffic and weather displays, flight management systems, and glass cockpits in even the most basic general aviation aircraft—yet more information to manage.

Despite our advancements in education and technology, one factor remains the same: the human factor. Estimates suggest that 75 percent of aviation accidents are related to human factors. Typically, a single decision does not lead to an accident. Rather, a combination of factors triggers the fateful chain of events. We can make better decisions, and thereby reduce human factor risks, by employing a Crew/Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) system. For the single general aviation pilot, CRM resources include everything on the flight deck and in our flight bag, as well as air traffic control, and even our passengers. Your non-pilot buddy still has a great pair of eyes for scanning for traffic, and would probably love to help.

The FAA has designed a series of Safety Management Systems (SMSs) to address accident prevention in commercial aviation. These structured systems improve knowledge sharing, CRM, ADM, and, therefore, risk control. Their benefits are filtering through to the general aviation pilot, in this case via insurance companies. Policyholders can benefit from training and risk management programs similar to the SMSs used by Part 135 operations. For example, the Safety and Loss Control Department at AIG Aerospace (formerly Chartis) Insurance, www.aig.com/safety-and-loss-control_3171_440065.html, supplies services like custom consultations, Flight School Acceptance programs, and Aviation Safety Resource referrals. Many of us are also familiar with the successful WINGS program for which many insurance companies offer incentives. Contact your insurance provider to find out what sort of risk management programs they have available.

Know your limitations. Are you that 5,000-plus-hour pilot? If so, do you tend to push the limits a little more than you should? Do you still use a checklist? Complacency can be one of the experienced pilot's worst enemies. Every flight should be approached with special consideration for safety and an awareness of our limitations for performance. Knowing where the primary risks lie allows us to make informed decisions about our preparations, next actions, what equipment to use, etc. The best systems, whether low-tech or high-tech, give the pilot access to multiple resources and alternatives, along with useable information to manage any dynamic flight environment—even the unexpected—safely.